Thursday, 9/26/2013
LBMA conferences have a tradition of everyone guessing the gold price one year hence, and the average being offered back as some kind of guide to professional sentiment, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault.
You know the idea. Anyone trying to guess how many sweeties there are in a jar – or inflated balloons squashed inside a car, say – will likely be wrong. But average out everyone's guesses, and your answer can prove weirdly right.
Forecasting the future then, this wisdom of crowds might help as well. Especially if the guesses are made by industry players, taking a punt at where they see – for instance – the gold or silver price sitting one year from now...updating
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